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Forecast sunny for weather pros

In the real world of meteorology, it wouldn't happen that way. "In real life," Freese said, "the meteorologist would probably be scratching his head, and saying, 'Well, on the one hand we've got this ... and on the other hand ... if we use this model to interpret these conditions ..."

Meteorology, say Freese and Charlie Notis, co-owners of one of the most successful weather forecasting services in the country, is a highly misunderstood science. And meteorologists are highly misunderstood scientists. (Why do they get things wrong so often?)

Actually, the Freese-Notis team gets things right a lot more often than wrong. And they get things right a lot more often than many of the meteorologists the general public depends on. In fact, they get things right so often that their business's profits have doubled in the past decade, with net profits today reaching nearly $2 million dollars annually.

The two ISU meteorology graduates (Freese received his B.S. in 1970 and his M.S. in 1973 and Notis his M.S. in 1972) have put together a team of 15 professionals (12 of them Iowa Staters) to provide customized weather services to a wide range of businesses. Although their 2,000-plus clients range from aviators, to editors, to attorneys, the pair considers their most important clients to be those from the fields of agriculture, commodities, energy and construction.

Here's how weather forecasting usually works for Sally Q. Public. At 7 a.m., she tunes to her favorite TV weather forecaster, who tells her that today there will be "scattered showers and thundershowers." Sally cancels her noon picnic, her 4 p.m. tennis match and takes her umbrella. By 9 a.m., the sun is shining, and shines warmly for the remainder of the day. "You got it wrong," Sally grumbles at the perky forecaster on the 5 p.m. news that evening.

Here's how it works at Freese-Notis Weather Inc., which provides service 18 hours-a-day. One of their clients, "Sam's Road Construction," calls at 5 a.m. to check on the early morning weather. Sam has a crew lined up to pour concrete on a country road in the southwest corner of Palo Alto County. What will the weather conditions be at 7:30 a.m.? A Freese-Notis professional tells him that rain is likely, but to call back in another hour, when more should be known. By 6:30 a.m., on the advice of Freese-Notis, Sam has canceled his crew for the morning, a decision that saves him money and time.

One of the keys to the success of Freese-Notis is the specificity to which the firm's professionals can serve their clients. They can pinpoint weather conditions in a small area at a specific time, in contrast to the average media weather reports, which must serve a general population in a wide geographical area. Also, Freese-Notis professionals talk one-on-one with their clients as much and as often as necessary.

All meteorologists use computer forecast models, but choosing and focusing on the right model, and interpreting it correctly - using a combination of intuition and past experience - may make the difference between being right and wrong.

There was, for example, a simmering day in New York City in late July 1999. "Every Tom, Dick and Harry, except us, was predicting a temperature in the upper 80s, near 90s," Notis said. "A week in advance, I was saying that because there was a Chinook type effect in the upper Appalachians, it was going to reach upper 90s, maybe 100 for several days. I stuck to my forecast and everybody else stuck to theirs."

Temperatures that week reached a sizzling 100 degrees - and stayed there for several days. Freese-Notis' energy company clients made millions by playing the natural gas futures market.

When the pair began their company in 1973, their skill at using the one weather model available put them at the cutting edge of their profession. Today, there are 10 models. But more is not always better, according to Notis. "A good meteorologist doesn't need incredible amounts of data - they will muddle your mind with information. Sometimes they throw doubt into your mind and makes things worse."

But to the casual observer, it does, in fact, seem that the company's office in Des Moines receives lots of information. Data come in over fiber optic lines capable of feeding information to about 100 telephones and computers. The Internet has opened whole new areas of business, allowing the company to provide maps and information to individuals inexpensively.

"We're moving so fast that we're just hanging on with our bare hands," Freese said.

Both men, though, know their success is about more than just being at the right place at the right time. They love their work.

"You ask what makes us good," Notis said. "It's our passion for our work. There's no scientific formula here. You have to love what you're doing."

- Karol Crosbie
   ISU Alumni Association